15 May
Technical Analysis Report Weekly
Hi Traders
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY:
We continue to trade with the trend until proven otherwise, holding short.
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Lets look at the US Indices: the Wave 4 down continues to subdivide lower
– the Wave 4 is an ABC and we are in the Wave C; in the Wave C there are five waves and we are in the fifth wave; in this fifth wave there are five waves; within this we are in the fifth
– that’s the only way I know how to explain it!
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The SP500 Wave 4 retracement target was 38.2% and that is 1338. The low last night on the cash was 1336 but in Elliott terms we can see the structure still needs to complete the fifth of the fifth down which can take the SP500 price to 1330 – 1320. The bottom line is we continue to trade with the trend until proven otherwise, holding short.
Trading Quote: Trading is not a job where you get paid by the hour, you get paid for doing the right thing!
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01 The Detail From Today's DayAhead Technical Analysis Report – 15 May
Market Drivers
Dow Jones 12,695 -0.90%
Base Metals Negative
US Spot Gold: 1563
US Silver: 28.40
Oil WTI: 94.60
US Copper CFD: 354
US Dollar: 80.70
EURUSD 1.2850
AUDUSD 0.9975
Dow Jones CFD 12,730
S&P500 CFD: 1340
FTSE 100 CFD: 5450
Shanghai 2380
SPI CFD 4257
News USD is trading higher since Friday, and it seems we will see more strength through the next few sessions as wave five appears to be underway on S&P Futures headed to 1325/1330 region. Meanwhile commodity currencies will suffer the most, as gold, oil and other commodities are falling quite sharply
Commodities Trading
US Spot Gold: 1563
TradingLevels: Subgroup2 (SG2 1580|1572|1565) developing as resistance with the price expected to test lower into the Midpoint 1550 which are all sublevels, the closet largest number is the MediumLevel 1500 (ML15)
Elliott Wave: Gold is forming a five wave decline within wave 5 from 1601. We believe that market will find a base in the near-future, somewhere above 1522 mark (December 2012 low). An impulse pop-up in price, through 1585 short-term critical swing will suggest that recovery is already unfolding
Intraday: the current retesting of 1565 (SG2) is Wave (iv) the 38.2% retracement is 1568 then Wave (v) downwards
US Silver: 28.40
TradingLevels: The next serious supports is the MinorLevel mTL8|28.00 and 27.72 SG2
Elliott Wave: The Wave (iv) down is unfold through 29.00 down into 28 and 27.72 where we should see a consolidation.
Oil WTI: 94.60
TradingLevels: The MinorLevel mTL5|95.00 has given way as support and now the price will go through the process of testing supply from 95 to 9650 which in turn will leave 95 as resistance, we also need to bring in the next MinorLevel mTL3|93.00 the top of MinorGroup1, this is where we can also expect a bounce and a retest of 95.
The other point is that Oil will follow stock in times of uncertainty, so working the SP500 count is valuable to your analysis and trade set ups.
Elliott Wave: One new low expected on crude while 95.74 swing holds. After that, important support comes in at 92-50-93 area.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.58-
US Nickel: Last: 7.65-
US Zinc: Last: 0.86-
US Aluminium Last: 0.89-
US Copper CFD: 354
MinorLevels are 380, 350, 330, 320, 310 then the MajorLevel 300 (TL3), MinorGroup1 MG1-330|320|310 this is where the price bounces around and you need a certain trading strategy, either standing back and accommodating the bounce or moving in close and working each level.
The 350 Midpoint is important it is the 50% between the 3 and 4 so this as support or resistance creates the weight towards either number and for trading you need to be on the right side. We can expect the price to be drawn to this number 350 then a bounce which will be part of the corrective pattern that forms around this level, traders should trade to this level and exit at the level and then wait for the corrective pattern to form, then move back in. Traders that can read the price and volume can short the bounce.
Forex Trading
US Dollar: 80.70
TradingLevels: In the bigger picture the price above 80 TL8 creates a positive market, in the smaller picture we are looking for a high above this level that will retest the trend up, a pullback is testing the strength of the trend, if the displays a corrective pattern above and below 81 and then finds supports on 81 then that’s a bullish sign, basically and abc correction at 81 with SG2 8172 as support.
Elliott Wave: Price jumped over the resistance at 8050 and will now test the old highs around 81 this should see the Euro at 128 for the corresponding consolidation and stalling of prices
EURUSD 1.2850
TradingLevels*: Expect support at and around 128 (mTL8) there is also trendline support here, plus the ending of the five waves down from the last high around 1330
Elliott Wave: Weakness on euro is still in progress, but within wave (v), which may extend to 1.2800/30 area in the near future. We do not see signs of a top so for now stay with a trend, while swing high around 1.2970 holds.
Trading Strategies: just work the sublevels on the short side as failed retests on lower volume the Midpoint is next 12850 give the price time to work around the lower side then the retest
*Want to know more about our unique TradingLevels? Click thru to this »article with videos
AUDUSD 0.9975
TradingLevels: The pattern across 1.00 is typical of the price working through a level, I call this pattern the Classic pattern, in a bear market the level was support and now its resistance. you can use the SG2 09972 as the set up and the trigger
Elliott Wave: Aussie is still trading within wave 5, looking for a support, which may not be seen earlier than at 0.9900. Pair may extend to 0.9900 and even 0.9850 while 1.0080 intra-day swing holds.
Trading Strategies: Continue with the trend / 11:30am Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Index Trading
Dow Jones CFD 12,730
TradingLevels: The 12,800 the first MinorLevel under the MajorLevel 13,00 was support and now resistance and on a more subtle note the SG2 12,772 we retested intraday as resistance, the 72 as 772 or 272 carries more weight than 72 alone. The 650 is the 50% between 800 and 500 so it will carry weight, then there are all the sublevels between each 100 points for day traders. The next MinorLevel from mTL8 12,800 is mTL5 12,500 and this is also important in the slightly bigger picture as it’s the 50% between 12,000 and 13,000 when your thinking is tuned to each number being a psychological magnet, then the levels, the weight and support and resistance become more centralised in your analysis and trading and if the Elliott can support the direction, then you can have more confidence in the trade setups and entry
Elliott Wave: Another wave down to 12630 - 12600
Trading Strategies: Day traders can work the SG1 12720 and the 12700 with the view of a new low.
S&P500 CFD: 1340
TradingLevels: A move to 1330 top of SubGroup1, also looking for five waves down from the last intraday high around 1365 SG2 to 1330 -1320. The 38.2% is at 1320
Elliott Wave: The wave count is point further down towards 1330, look for the 1340 to develop as resistance first…
Trading Strategies: work the 1340 as support or resistance to the next sublevel.
On the flipside, support on 1345 starts to create strength flowed by 1350.
Day traders, when working 1340 you also need to use the levels on either side, on the lower side 1338 and 1333 and above 1340 the MicroGroup1 -1343
FTSE 100 CFD: 5450
TradingLevels: Once 5450 becomes the resistance expect the price to move lower to 5400
Elliott Wave: Small Wave iv) trapped between 5450 and SG2 above expect Wave v) of (v) of 5 down to 5400 area
Trading Strategies: Use the Midpoint 5450 as tested and failed resistance for the short
DAX CFD: 6520
TradingLevels: The pattern under ML65|6500 is bearish with the target price point under 6400 closer to 4300
Day Trading: The price will bounce around a lot into SG1 of 6400, the price needs to work down through and around 6400 the Classic TradingLevels pattern. Looking for five waves down from the last high up close to 6600
Shanghai 2380
TradingLevels: As forecasted, stalling at olds highs, sellers moving in and triggering stops, supports around 2350. The Shenzhen will hold more firmly at 1000, this will offer the general support while metals are sold off with the higher US dollar and the impulse wave down in Europe.
SPI CFD 4257
TradingLevels: If the 4250 becomes the resistance then expect the price down at 4200, there would be a bounce at 4230 SG1
Day Trading: Expect a reluctant move under the 4250 to 4240
11:30am Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Technical Analysis Summary
US Indices: The Wave 4 down continues to subdivide lower – the Wave 4 is an ABC and we are in the Wave C; in the Wave C there are five waves and we are in the fifth wave; in this fifth wave there are five waves; within this we are in the fifth – that’s the only way I know how to explain it. The SP500 Wave 4 retracement target was 38.2% and that is 1338. The low last night on the cash was 1336 but in Elliott terms we can see the structure still needs to complete the fifth of the fifth down which can take the SP500 price to 1330 – 1320.
The bottom line is we continue to trade with the trend until proven otherwise, holding short.
Trading Quote
"Trading is not a job where you get paid by the hour, you get paid for doing the right thing."
Today's Financial Events
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
11:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
11:30am AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m 4.0%
3:00pm JPY Household Confidence 40.9 40.3
3:30pm EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 0.0% 0.2%
3:30pm EUR French CPI m/m 0.3% 0.8%
4:00pm EUR German Prelim GDP q/q 0.1% -0.2%
4:45pm EUR French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q -0.2% -0.1%
6:00pm EUR Italian Prelim GDP q/q -0.6% -0.7%
6:30pm GBP Trade Balance -8.4B -8.8B
7:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 19.2 23.4
7:00pm EUR Flash GDP q/q -0.2% -0.3%
7:00pm EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 11.7 13.1
7:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m 1.0%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
10:30pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
10:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% 0.8%
10:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.2% 0.8%
10:30pm USD CPI m/m 0.1% 0.3%
10:30pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.3 6.6
11:00pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 19.4B 10.1B
11:30pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
12:00am USD Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.6%
12:00am USD NAHB Housing Market Index 26 25
NOTES: Prices may change as this Technical Analysis report is written from 3.30 - 6.30AM
Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
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02 FOREX: AUDUSD – Latest Elliott Wave Analysis
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart
Monday, 14 May 2012 at 5:48:00PM AEST
Aussie is still trading within wave 5, looking for a support, which may not be seen earlier than at 0.9900. Pair may extend to 0.9900 and even 0.9850 while 1.0080 intra-day swing holds.
AUDUSD 4 Hour Chart
Monday, 14 May 2012 at 4:50:00PM AEST – bottom near!?
Aussie trades around the lows and testing 1.000 psychological level, where we still believe that pair will find the support. Even from an Elliott Wave perspective we can count five waves from from 1.047, which means that we should see a temporary reaction to the upside. Once wave 2-wave 4 trend line is broken, we will look for a three wave bounce back towards 1.0142/1.02.
Next support in current fifth wave comes in at 0.9950.
AUDUSD Daily Chart
13 May 2012 – wave C) looking for a support
AUDUSD keeps falling within third leg of decline from above 1.04, which either can be wave C of a correction, or wave 3) of an impulse. However. we believe that parity will react as a very strong support, so our primary view calls for a wave (D) rally in coming weeks.
Ideally price will turn bullish in impulsive fashion from 0.9900-1.000 zone.
AUDUSD Weekly Chart
April 29 2011 – sideways
Aussie is trapped in ranged for more than a year now, so we assume that corrective wave IV is still unfolding. After three down in wave (A) and three up in (B) we are now tracking two counts; triangle and flat. Triangle is our primary view, but both counts suggest more sideways price action before wave V break occurs.
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