DayAhead 29 November
Global Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones 16,097 +0.15%
SP500 1,807 +0.25%
NASDAQ 3,470+072%
FTSE 100 6,660 +0.17%
DAX 9348
Shanghai Comp 2219
ASX 200 CFD 5344
US Bonds 130.67
US Spot Gold 1245
US Spot Silver 1972
US Copper 318
Oil WTI 92.10
US Corn 425
Soybeans 1318
Wheat 664
US Dollar 80.57
EURUSD 1.36
AUDUSD 0.91
Market Analysis Summary
US Indices: Expect new highs into Monday (half day trading Friday)
Forex: USD: Expected lower through 80.50
AUDUSD: Support on 9130 creates further upside, that said also expect an abc rally above 91
EURUSD: Long on 136 support
Metals: Copper: Requires 320 support to create positive market
Precious Metals: Wave c of (ii) rally
Grains: Soybeans looking at the abc retracement to 1310 – 1300 for buying opportunity
Stocks: The ASX requires 5350 as support for long trades and possible Wave (iii) up!
Commodities
Precious Metals
US Spot Gold 1245
TradingLevels: The retest of 1300 is still under way and the main resistances are the midpoint 1250 and SG2 1265|1272|1280 with the 1272 as the most important
Elliott Wave: Wave c of appears to have started. Wave c would be in five waves and Wave c normally has an equality in size with Wave a.
Trading Strategy: Cautious long traders, long on 1240 support
Long 1240 Stop 1236
US Spot Silver 1972
Technical Analysis: Support on 1272 can indicate that Wave c upwards is starting, sliver is the weaker that gold.
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.17-
US Nickel: Last: 6.05+
US Zinc: Last: 0.8343-
US Aluminium Last: 0.7705+
US Copper 318
Technical Analysis:
From a tradinglevels point of view the current market is under the 320 is it makes copper bearish.
The 320 as support indicates strength for base metals. The market can also move a tad lower first but it cannot develop 315 as resistance, as this creates a larger bearish scenario. We are looking for the ASX200 and the AUD to lift higher in line with the Chinese markets so the idea of base metals moving higher is on the cards and the support on 320 for copper is the next step in the process.
Oil WTI 92.10
Technical Analysis:
Move stops to 93.23.
The consolidation at 92 is a small Wave iv. The 38.2% retracement for this structure is 92.60. The first requirement is developing support on 92.30 (group1) then the resistance is at the midpoint 92.50. The wave iv is quite mature, so any move up would be a wave c in five waves. Which you can look to short. Otherwise look too short on the break of 92 and the retest of 92 there is also SG2 91.80|91.72|91.65 use the 91.72 to add. Expect a bounce off 91
Grains
US Corn 425 New March Contracts
Technical Analysis: Support on top of group1 the 430 creates the positive market
Elliott Wave: The current bounce off the low 420 to 430 can be a wave four, we need to use the tradinglevels and the 430 as support can help confirm further upside.
If this is a wave four, then the pattern is in Wave b
Strategy: Because this is a new contract month the levels are slightly adjusted, the 425 would off the first important support to create a positive market, but really it’s the 430.
Soybeans 1318
abc retracement as Wave ii back the 61.8% retracement level 1300. Currently in Wave a lower to 315 then the Wave b bounce in three waves back to retest 1330 and then Wave c lower towards 1310 – 1300. Once completed and the pattern lower is in three waves we can look to buy more through group1 1310|1320|1330
Long 1320 Stop 1276
Long 1310 Stop 1276
Long 1300 Stop 1276
Long 1280 Stop 1276
Long 1272 Stop 1276
Wheat 664 New March Contracts
The whole move up off the lows can be a corrective rally, because its still in three waves and not five waves. It can however develop further into five waves and if that is the case then the five waves (impulse) will create another five waves
Forex
US Dollar 80.57
TradingLevels: While the market is under the line in the sand the SG2 80.72 its negative and can move lower while the Euro moves higher
Elliott Wave: The main trend down from 81.00 is taking shape as an ending diagonal triangle which can move through 80.50 midpoint support, leaving the Euro higher
EURUSD 1.36
TradingLevels: Support on 1.36 creates long trades
Elliott Wave The pattern across 136 is corrective so expect new highs
Trading Strategies: Long on 136 and 13610
AUDUSD 0.91
TradingLevels: The SG2 9080|9072|9065 is the line in the sand or rather the 9072 for being long or short, that said the trend is down…
Elliott Wave: The last move down from the last high 9150 is in five waves, so a counter trend in three waves abc and then another five waves down
Trading Strategies: Follow the Elliott pattern, look for an abc 5-3-5 corrective rally, but of course the market needs to get above 91 first. Otherwise short any new low.
There is also a bullish count and that would be going long on top of 9130 support, if it arrives.
Treasuries
10 Year US Treasury Yield 2.73 (TNX/ Previous EOD Price)
TradingLevels: The market is playing in MG2 280|272|265 only when this becomes support and especially 2.72 as tested support can the market move higher towards 3.00. be aware this market can fail from the 2.80 In the meantime expect more corrective price action within the 280 – 265 MG2 range
Elliott Wave: Five waves up from 2.47 to 2.78, so next is the three wave abc counter trend back into the 2.60 area and then further upside towards the old highs TL3|3.00 as Wave 5
US Bonds 130.67 New March Contracts
TradingLevels: While the market remains above 130 its positive, the pattern between 131 and 130 is bullish corrective and new highs should follow, that said the long trade should be on 131 support and scaling in through microgroup1
Elliott Wave: Support for stops below 130
Indices
DJI 16,135
TradingLevels: Support on 16,100 arrives and scaling in through SG1 is the aim.
Elliott Wave: Wave 4) of v at 16,100 then Wave 5) of V to 16,200
Trading Strategies: The futures market is open and the stock market closed, the futures are trading higher, so when the stock market opens it will jump causing the futures to move higher
Long on 16,100 and through SG1 as normal… with 16,200 as the target
S&P500 1809
TradingLevels: Expect the tradinglevels classic pattern across 1810 (mtl1) It appears the tech stocks are leading the markets higher, in fact the tech index is a leading pattern.
Elliott Wave: An abc move lower into 1790, there is support at 1795
Trading Strategies: Look for support on 1810 and add to long trade.
Stops to 1803
FTSE 100 6650
TradingLevels treat the 6650 midpoint as the line n the sand as support or resistance for being long or short.
Elliott Wave: The bias is lower
Trading Strategies: Short the 6650 as tested resistance and 6660 support for long trades
DAX 9348
TradingLevels: Take profit at 9400 and wait for the corrective process across this price point and the look for support to trade long again
Long 9350 Stop 9367 Target 9400
Long SG1 9310|9320|9330 Stop 9367 Target 9400
Shanghai Comp 2219
We can expect resistance in the 2250 area and another abc correction before seeing new highs above 2270 or the market can simply move into new highs with small correction at the supply levels 2250 – 2272 the main point is that this market is in a bullish climb
ASX 200 CFD 5344
TradingLevels: The cash is at 5334 and the ASX CFD 5344, so a positive opening of 10 points which is a good lead into Friday being positive and Monday following
Elliott Wave: Wave (ii) completing and expecting Wave (iii) upwards, which should be a strong quick trend
Day Trading Strategy: Look for long trade setups into Wave (iii) upwards
Quote
The markets are clearly not a random walk. The markets are not even efficient because that assumption implies you can’t make an above-average return. Since some people can do that, I disagree with the assumption. Monroe Trout
Education
CMO vs CDO: Same Outside, Different Inside
The concept of collateralizing and structured financing predates the market for collateralized mortgage obligations and collateralized debt obligations .Learn More »
Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST
8:45am NZD Building Consents m/m
10:15am JPY Manufacturing PMI
10:30am JPY Household Spending y/y
JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
JPY National Core CPI y/y
JPY Unemployment Rate
10:50am JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m
11:05am GBP GfK Consumer Confidence
11:30am AUD Private Sector Credit m/m
4:00pm JPY Housing Starts y/y
6:00pm EUR German Retail Sales m/m
GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
6:45pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
7:00pm CHF KOF Economic Barometer
8:00pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
EUR Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
8:30pm GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
GBP Mortgage Approvals
9:00pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
EUR Unemployment Rate
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m
12:30am CAD GDP m/m
ASX Reporting & Dividends > CLICK
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
TradingLounge
DayAhead 28 November
Global Technical Analysis Report
Dow Jones 16,070 +0.02%
SP500 1,803 +0.06%
NASDAQ 3,462+049%
FTSE 100 6,649 +0.20%
DAX 9348
Shanghai Comp 2200
ASX 200 CFD 5340
US Bonds 132
US Spot Gold 1242
US Spot Silver 1978
US Copper 319
Oil WTI 93.88
US Corn 418
Soybeans 1324
Wheat 653
US Dollar 80.75
EURUSD 1.3560
AUDUSD 0.907
Market Analysis Summary
Thanksgiving Day -- November 28, 2013
US Indices: SP500 at 1800 is the line in the sand as negative or positive
Forex: USD: It’s too early to confirm a low in for the dollar and a top in for the Euro
AUDUSD: Will the 90 pull the market there…
EURUSD: Only three wave down for the Euro not five and while the market is above 1.35 its supported
Metals: Copper: 318 looking for demand as Wave iv
Precious Metals: Silver is weaker than gold
Grains: Soybeans looking at the abc retracement to 1310 – 1300 for buying opportunity
Stocks: The ASX requires 5350 as support to look positive
Commodities
Precious Metals
US Spot Gold 1242
TradingLevels: While the market is above 1230 we will stay with the abc wave (ii) Elliott count, but the 1230 as resistance is a bearish scenario and the market will move lower into 1200, bouncing at each level within SG1 1230|1220|1210
Elliott Wave: Still in Wave b of the abc Wave (ii) corrective rally. Once Wave b is completed, that is the 61.8% retracement of Wave a around the 1240 – 1237, expect a move higher as Wave c of (ii) towards SG2 1272.
Trading Strategy: If wave b moves lower than 1240 and then develops support on the 1240 then scale in long through 1241|1242|1243 which would be the start of wave c of (ii). On the bearish side, If the 1240 develops as the resistance then short down to 1230 and expect a bounce
US Spot Silver 1978
Technical Analysis: There will be five waves down from the last high 1210 towards 1960, then a move up, the move up should be wave c) in five waves back to 2030, but if the 1272 becomes the resistance on the move up then look to short as the Wave c) is incorrect
Base Metals
US Spot Prices (in l/b)
US Copper: Last: 3.18-
US Nickel: Last: 6.03-
US Zinc: Last: 0.8376-
US Aluminium Last: 0.7725-
US Copper 319
Technical Analysis:
We were looking for a move to 318|317 then a move higher above 320 this would create a larger bullish picture. If however the 315 becomes the tested resistance then we have a larger bearish market and of course both scenarios will affect commodities countries
Oil WTI 92.24
Technical Analysis:
Move stops to 93.53. expect support and consolidation at 92, however this level should eventually become the resistance, which is the group1 pivot, so with this as resistance the target sets at 90 (ML9)
Grains
US Corn 418
Technical Analysis: The 415 held but to confirm a bullish count the 420 must become the support
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% 415 last low must stay in place for the bullish wave count
Strategy: Tested support on 420 creates the long trade
Soybeans 1324
Thoughts are that the abc retracement will start from the current high 1340. The 50|62% retracement level is back at 1300. It is good if we get this retracement in three waves an abc 5-3-5 structure retesting demand, once confirmed as a three wave corrective pattern, then we know that new highs will follow and will allow us to place larger positions on the long side
Pending Long tested support 1330 Stop 1296
Pending Long 1350 Stop 1326
Long 1320 Stop 1276
Long 1310 Stop 1276
Long 1300 Stop 1276
Long 1280 Stop 1276
Long 1272 Stop 1276
Wheat 653
Following on from yesterday’s comments placing the first long trade above 650 (ML65)
Pending Long 653 Stop 643
Pending Long 655 Stop 643
Long 651 Stop 643
Forex
US Dollar 80.75
TradingLevels: The move back above SG2 80.72 is a positive but we want the 81.00 as the support. It would also be a good idea to observe the wave count on the USDCHF as a low is expected which you can line up with the USD index and of course if this is correct then the Euro will move lower
Elliott Wave: The current move up can be counted as corrective or unfinished impulsive. The main point is the 81.00 as support to short the Euro or long on the CHF
EURUSD 1.3560
TradingLevels: The 1.35 as resistance confirms a change in trend, while the market is above 1.35 it can go higher
Elliott Wave Like the USD move up the Euro move lower hasn’t matured enough to call it impulsive or corrective, both are valid.
Trading Strategies: The SG2 13580|13572|13565 as resistance creates further downside
with supports at 13550 and 13530. Can’t confirm a change in trend to the downside, as we don’t have a completed impulse wave lower and if we do get the impulse wave (five waves) then we can look to short the abc 5-3-5 counter trend, otherwise if we only get three waves down from the 13610 high then we will see a move into new highs, so essentially we have to wait for the market to unfold, we can also observe the CHF and dollar index for leads
AUDUSD 0.9070
TradingLevels: The SG2 9080|9072|9065 is the line in the sand or rather the 9072 for being long or short, that said the trend is down…
Elliott Wave: counting five waves down from the last high 9136
Trading Strategies: The short trade from 91 to SG2 9072 was fine and now expect the market to be held by SG2, so let the pattern within SG2 mature and work out if the SG2 becomes support or resistance and trade on that side. The Elliott is suggesting lower into the midpoint 9050 and in psychology terms the market is looking at 90.
Treasuries
10 Year US Treasury Yield 2.69 (TNX/ Previous EOD Price)
TradingLevels: The market is playing in MG2 280|272|265 only when this becomes support and especially 2.72 as tested support can the market move higher towards 3.00. be aware this market can fail from the 2.80 In the meantime expect more corrective price action within the 280 – 265 MG2 range
Elliott Wave: Five waves up from 2.47 to 2.78, so next is the three wave abc counter trend back into the 2.60 area and then further upside towards the old highs TL3|3.00 as Wave 5
US Bonds 131.90
TradingLevels: The resistance 132.50 area held nicely. Allow the market pattern at 132 to mature and work out if the 132 will become the support or resistance, allow the market to have three swings across this level and then decide.
Elliott Wave: The 61.8% support 131.30
Indices
DJI 16,066
TradingLevels: no support came in on 16,100 and now the market is failing at this level, so expect the market back at 16,000 unless the 16,072 develops as support, if that is the case then look long and add on 16,100 support through SG1
Elliott Wave: Wave 4) of v at 16,100 then Wave 5) of V to 16,200
Trading Strategies:
S&P500 1803
TradingLevels: The move lower is in three waves i.e. bullish corrective, however these three waves can turn into five waves (impulsive) meaning further lows could be made. We need to allow the patterns to mature. Support on 1806 on the cash would be a positive step
The market is struggling above 1800, the market can retrace back close to 1795 or lower.
Elliott Wave: An abc move lower into 1790, there is support at 1795
Trading Strategies: Allow the corrective pattern to unfold lower and mature. The 1800 as tested resistance is a negative and while the market is above 1800 it’s a positive
FTSE 100 6630
TradingLevels Same – A move to the next price point 6600 if not lower
Elliott Wave: Impulse wave lower through 600
Trading Strategies: If you are short from the 6672 resistance then move stops to 6656 then when the market finishes bouncing on SG1 6630 and is trading under 6620 the move stops to 6647. Expect the market to bounce around within SG1 6630|6620|6610
DAX 9348
TradingLevels: It’s only natural to find resistance at 5 that is the midpoint 9350, this should soon become the support. Look to add on the midpoint once you can see it tested as support
Pending Long 9350 tested support Stop 9336
Long SG1 9310|9320|9330 Stop 9323 or 9333
Shanghai Comp 2200
The lower volume during the corrective pattern proved to be correct with the market now moving higher on higher volume and will continue to edge higher
ASX 200 CFD 5340 11:30am Private Capital Expenditure q/q
TradingLevels: Even though the market was lower it was lower on lower volume, which is a bullish aspect, but as mentioned yesterday the 5330 is a critical level, as resistance it creates a more bearish outlook and the volume today will help confirm either direction
Elliott Wave: The wave structure upwards from the last low 5279 is still looking impulsive as long as the market stays above its 61.8% retracement level 5320.
Day Trading Strategy: Support on 5350 would prove strength, the 5320 as resistance is a negative market
Quote
Bend your view to the charts, not the charts to your view.
Education
Calamity Call
A call feature of a Collateralized Mortgage Obligation (CMO) designed primarily to reduce the issuer's reinvestment risk. Learn More »
Today's Financial Events Australian Time AEST
11:00am NZD ANZ Business Confidence
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m
11:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q
5:45pm CHF GDP q/q
6:00pm EUR German Import Prices m/m
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
7:55pm EUR German Unemployment Change
8:00pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
EUR Private Loans y/y
8:10pm EUR Retail PMI
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR Spanish HPI q/q
9:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
GBP BOE Financial Stability Report
Tentative GBP 30-y Bond Auction
All Day USD Bank Holiday
12:30am CAD Current Account
CAD RMPI m/m
CAD IPPI m/m
NOTES:
1. Check the ASX Dividend & Reporting check the company financial calendar before trading
2. Prices may change as this report is written while US markets are trading
3. Always think things out for yourself, we are only here to bounce ideas around.
TradingLounge